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The future analysis of the machinery industry and packaging machinery industry
Release date:2018/1/24 13:56:00 Clicks:2267 Times news source:
In the first half of this year, China's machinery industry production gradually out of the trough wind and rain. In the second half, the machinery industry will face what change? Cai Wei, executive vice president of China Machinery Industry Federation believes that the second half of the economic operation of the machinery industry is still faced with various difficulties, but the overall operating environment better than the first half. In the second half of the machinery industry and packaging machinery industry there are four major favorable factors.
First, the state has explicitly stated that it will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately easy monetary policy, and the macroeconomic situation is expected to pick up further. In this context, the demand for machinery products from all walks of life is expected to continue to grow. From the first half of the data, the machinery industry showed a steady upward trend. In June, the total output value of machinery industry in that month exceeded 1 trillion yuan, a record high, indicating that the production situation is accelerating. Driven by the investment in infrastructure, engineering machinery ushered in a better market opportunities.
Second, oil, steel and other energy sources, the supply of raw materials is more conducive to the cost control of machinery industry and improve efficiency. Take steel as an example. At the end of June, the domestic steel composite price index compiled by China Iron and Steel Association was 101.98 points, down 59.49 points or 36.84% from the same period of last year.
Third, the state's policies on adjusting and rejuvenating the equipment manufacturing industry and the automobile industry (such as encouraging independent innovation and encouraging accelerated refurbishment of automobiles, raising the export tax rebate rate of some machinery products, and transforming VAT) continue to be implemented and will speed up the development of the machinery industry The pace of development.
From the national policy of expanding domestic demand, benefit most, the most obvious effect is the agricultural machinery and automotive industry. The output of large-sized and medium-sized tractors and combine harvesters urgently needed for agricultural production in the first half of the year increased by 32.02%, 27.82% and 43.14% respectively over the same period of last year. Automobile production and sales in the first half of the year were 5.99 million and 6.1 million vehicles, up 15.22% and 17.69% respectively; the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimated that with the promotion of favorable policies, the sales volume of automobiles will reach 11 million units this year.
Fourthly, due to the sharp drop in the growth rate of the machinery industry in the second half of last year, especially in the fourth quarter of the year, the comparative base of the second half of this year has been reduced and therefore the growth rate of the second half of this year will be further enhanced.
Cai Weici predicts that machinery industry in the second half is expected to continue the recovery momentum in the second quarter and gradually accelerate the pace of recovery in the fourth quarter is expected to re-achieve double-digit rapid growth in 2009 full-year machinery industry output will grow 12% over the previous year, Or so, the realized profit will increase by about 8% over the previous year and the foreign exchange earning from exporting is expected to drop by about 10% over the previous year. However, we must not be lightly mindful of the difficulties while maintaining the proper confidence.
Tsai Wei-chai believes that in the machinery industry, the main problem at present is the lack of external demand. Statistics show that in the first half of the foreign trade machinery exports amounted to 89.146 billion US dollars, down 24.11%; after 1-3 months, January-April, January-May fell 21.04%, 22.22% and 23.9%, showing the decline still expand. The proportion of the export delivery value in the sales value of machinery industry in the previous years was about 16% under normal circumstances and dropped to 10.58% from January to June this year.
The current foreign demand has not yet seen a clear improvement in the prospects. According to the World Bank and other research and analysis, the prospect of global economic recovery is still hard to predict. It is difficult for the export market of machinery industry to see a clear improvement in the short term. In the case of shrinking in the international market, to expand the export share, but also need enterprises to improve their own technical level.
Fortunately, in the field of machinery industry, some industries in our country have stepped into the international advanced ranks and their exports have also been less affected. For example, the manufacture of power equipment is a strong point for China's machinery industry. In the first half of this year, the export of power generation equipment amounted to Nine million kilowatts, year on year still achieved positive growth.
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